New-look auto sector could emerge from crisis

The global auto industry will be remodeled once economic crisis debris is cleared, but analysts are hazy over how many giants will be humming, which ones will be hauled away and where cars will be made.

Within 10 years, sales will be additional by electric and amalgam vehicles, but a beachcomber of high-profile auto mergers is unlikely, abnormally cross-border deals aback cultural differences scuppered beforehand attempts, analysts say.

IHS All-around Insight said industry forecasts "predict a 20 percent slump in agent assembly in the 27 EU associates amid the alpha of 2008 and the end of 2009," with a acquirement accident of 60 billion euros (78 billion dollars).

Martin Winterkorn, arch of Europe's better car maker Volkswagen, said aftermost anniversary that already the crisis had passed, he was "certain there would abide two car makers in France, at atomic three in Germany, and at atomic two in Japan."

"I'm not afraid about the automobile's approaching in Europe," Winterkorn told the French Journal de l'Automobile.

Cars will additionally be fabricated in China, South Korea and the United States, he said.

Fiat arch controlling Sergio Marchionne has claimed alone six above car makers would survive the all-around slump.

German auto able Ferdinand Dudenhoeffer scoffed at Marchionne's forecast, cogent AFP it was "an old story" told years ago that should accept apparent General Motors become "the better and arch car maker in the world."

Dudenhoeffer, Pieper and Willi Dietz from the German IFA Institute for Automotive Business agreed that afterpiece cooperation in analysis and development and assembly was the alone way for European companies to accomplish economies of scale.

IHS All-around Insight said added than 20 billion euros are invested annually in European auto analysis and development.

"We will see abundant added cooperation amid the OEMs (Original Equipment Manufacturers)," Dietz said, application the industry appellation for brand-name car makers.

He acicular to advancing assignment amid BMW and Peugeot of France, BMW and German battling Daimler, and Mitsubishi of Japan and Peugeot in electric cars.

These aftermost are capital for manufacturers, and a aboriginal beachcomber of prototypes is already actuality apparent at auto shows.

"The abutting beachcomber will alpha I anticipate by about 2015-2020, aback we will see cars that are advised for you and me," Dietz said.

Mergers about were risky, he noted, citation attempts by BMW and Rover, and Daimler-Chrysler, both of which stumbled as accumulated ability clashes rendered the businesses "very circuitous to manage."

Pieper agreed above mergers were absurd unless the crisis lasted best than accepted or deepened, and cash-burn larboard car makers active on empty.

In that case, political considerations ability advance French groups Renault and Peugoeot together, and BMW and Daimler into a German tie-up, he speculated.

"These are the best acceptable mergers in Europe," the coffer analyst said, while affirmation they were long-shots.

Fiat is now advancing a alliance with Chrysler, but denied Friday it ability additionally tie up with Opel.

Manufacturing was abiding to move to eastern Europe, Russia, China and South America meanwhile, with Opel plants in Belgium, Britain and Germany possibly abreast the end of the road, the analysts said.

"If you appetite to advertise a car in China, you accept to aftermath a car in China," Dietz said. "If you appetite to advertise a car in Brazil or Argentina or Mexico you accept to aftermath there, you can't consign cars from Europe to this region."

With European overcapacity angled to ability 35 percent this year, Pieper added: "In the end, the victims could be, as always, the Belgians.

"Opel has one bulb in Belgium but burden and lobbying are not as strong" as in big EU countries, he explained.

With a German acclamation looming, no job cuts would be apparent there afore backward in the year, he said.

Low-volume producers like Saab of Sweden were the best acceptable to disappear, but Dietz said: "I don't appetite to accident brands by adage they accept no chance."

Dudenhoeffer said Aston Martin, Ferrari and Porsche showed manufacturers could additionally accomplish profits, admitting the closing two are endemic by Fiat and VW.